The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a new report saying that the world is likely to miss the target of expanding global renewable energy capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030, agreed at the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28). The report also predicts that solar power will overtake hydropower to account for the largest share of the world's installed renewable energy capacity.

The IEA reports that national governments have set domestic renewable energy ambitions that exceed those of the NDC. The agency's analysis of policies, plans and estimates from nearly 150 countries shows that nearly 8,000 GW of renewable energy will be installed globally by 2030, accounting for 70% of the capacity needed to achieve the tripling target by 2030.

The IEA said that in order to reach 11,000 GW, most regions and countries, including the European Union, the United States and India, "need to accelerate" the pace of deployment. Southeast Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa require increased deployment, according to the report. The report also notes that China's renewable energy expansion is critical to achieving the 11,000 GW target, with the country so far on track to exceed the 2030 target by 2.5 times.

Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, new annual renewable energy capacity has tripled, according to the report. The IEA attributes this achievement to policy support, economies of scale and technological advances.

The International Energy Agency has revealed that solar energy accounts for half of the future capacity that governments have clearly mapped out. It predicts that once countries meet their 2030 targets, the sun will overtake hydropower to become the world's largest source of installed renewable energy capacity.

The report also identifies key challenges to renewable energy deployment, including long waiting times for approvals, inadequate investment in grid infrastructure, the need for rapid and efficient integration of variable renewables, and high financing costs, especially for emerging and developing economies. It calls for lower financing costs to improve the financing viability of renewable energy projects and to provide project support in the pre-development stage.

In April, the International Energy Agency called for a six-fold increase in global energy storage capacity to drive the 2030 global goal.